Hurricane Francine forms in Gulf, expected to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday

ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening and is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory, the center of Francine was located about 150 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 350 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and moving northeast at 10 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles.

While additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, Francine is forecast to weaken quickly after landfall. However, NHC forecasters warned of life-threatening storm surge.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron, east of Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans.

A storm surge warning is in effect for Sabine Pass, Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. A storm surge watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border and Mobile Bay.

The system is forecast to continue to increase its forward pace in a northeast motion toward the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

A faster northeastward motion is expected late Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

“After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday,” forecasters said.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Francine is expected to bring total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, into Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

The biggest storm surge threat could bring 5- to 10-foot-higher levels than normal in Louisiana from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Port Fourchon and Vermilion Bay with lower levels to the east and west.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC stated. “Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”

The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Gordon and Helene.

The more likely to form is a trough of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic with a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms running from near the Cabo Verde Islands south for several hundred miles.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.

A little closer in the central tropical Atlantic is an elongated area of low pressure with some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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