Senator's silence fuels speculation AMLO has votes for reform

A Mexican opposition senator went dark on his colleagues Monday, igniting speculation that he had decided to provide the final vote President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador needs to usher through a judicial overhaul that has spooked global investors.

Senator Miguel Angel Yunes Marquez, of the PAN party, has been in the spotlight of local news media for days. Political columnists have identified him as the most likely opposition senator to support ruling party Morena’s plan for a constitutional reform that would include the direct election of Supreme Court judges.

On Monday, colleagues reported being unable to reach Yunes just hours before the debate of the bill in the Senate. Morena’s majority in the new Congress, sworn in this month, is just one vote short of the total it needs to pass a constitutional reform, so converting Yunes would do the job.

Yunes couldn’t be reached by Bloomberg late Monday. He had previously said he would vote against the reform along with the rest of the PAN’s senators.

“I make a respectful and firm call for him to confirm his position on the judicial reform,” the coordinator of PAN senators, Guadalupe Murguia Gutierrez, told reporters after a party meeting on the topic Monday night, which Yunes didn’t attend.

One outlet, El Sol de Mexico, reported late Monday without providing evidence that Yunes, a senator for the state of Veracruz, had switched sides and would support the reform.

Arrest Warrants

According to an opinion article published by Milenio, Yunes had been offered that several arrest warrants against members of his family for alleged corruption cases would disappear if he supported the reform.

“We demand that the federal government stop pressuring opposition senators with corrupt offers and intimidating actions by the prosecutor’s office,” Murguia Gutierrez said Monday.

Morena’s leader in the Senate, Adan Augusto Lopez, has denied that the party has offered money or pressured opposition senators to vote in favor of the judicial reform.

The reform, which seeks to have all of Mexico’s federal judges elected by popular vote, requires approval by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress, plus a majority of state legislatures. The plan was comfortably approved last week in the lower house, and Morena has ample support in the states, so the Senate remains the only significant hurdle.

Investors have sold off the peso and other Mexican assets as the reform has gotten closer to reality. Critics including U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar say the changes would reduce the independence of the judiciary, hurting confidence in the rule of law even as the country seeks more investment from foreign companies.

The Senate will begin discussing the bill on Tuesday and could begin voting on it the same day.