Venezuela's repression campaign gets Maduro what he wants in short term

Nicolás Maduro has gotten what he wants. For now.

Following the playbook of autocratic leaders before him, Venezuela’s president launched a campaign of repression against his own people in an attempt to squelch a resistance movement not seen since the rise of his idol Hugo Chávez over two decades ago.

He ordered the arrest of opposition leaders and aides, who presented evidence of his monumental loss in the July election. Thousands who protested his seemingly fraudulent win were apprehended, their forced apologies to him aired on state TV. The homes of opposition supporters were graffitied with black X marks. The ever-popular María Corina Machado is in hiding. And now, Edmundo González, the presidential candidate who could have unseated him, has fled.

So while Maduro has clung to power at all costs, the path he has chosen is also one of diplomatic and economic isolation.

“Everything they’re doing is a demonstration of weakness, not strength, but right now time plays in favor of Maduro,” said Tamara Taraciuk of Human Rights Watch. “The international community has to urgently activate to elevate the cost of this path and show them the costs of their actions.”

A significant recovery for Venezuela — only a few years out of hyperinflation — hinges on world powers like the U.S., which only recently began to conditionally ease sweeping financial sanctions. Maduro’s latest moves to roll back subsidies, make overtures to investors and sign deals with oil majors won’t be enough.

At this point, it’s unlikely that he will receive international support to revive the economy. While China and Russia have recognized his victory, most nations have questioned the legitimacy of the vote count, with leaders from U.S. President Joe Biden to Chile’s Gabriel Boric outright rejecting Maduro’s claim to victory, a position also adopted by Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Guatemala.

So while Maduro has accomplished his immediate goal — staying in power — his longer-term needs are even more out of reach.

Venezuelans had coalesced around González, a little-known former diplomat, in April, to replace Machado on the ballot after the government banned her from running for public office.

“I’ve taken this decision thinking of Venezuela and that our destiny as a nation can’t, and shouldn’t be, one of conflict and suffering,” González said Monday in a statement on X. “Only democracy and the realization of the popular will can pave the way for our country’s future.”

Now in Spain, his absence is a significant setback for the opposition since he had the potential votes to take the presidency should a deal have been worked out in which Maduro stepped down.

In a statement on Sunday, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell reiterated González was the winner of Venezuela’s election and called his departure “a sad day for democracy.”

While Machado has expressed a willingness to engage in talks with the government, Maduro often refers to her as a “fascist” who is bringing an impending “blood bath” and a “civil war” to the nation. It’s difficult to imagine a transition in which Maduro allows her to play a leading role.

For now, the opposition must contend with pressuring the sectors that keep Maduro in power and have influence over the armed forces into a negotiation.

Meanwhile, the U.S., which is said to be laying the groundwork for individual sanctions on Maduro-affiliated officials who it says helped obstruct the July election, has yet to act more than a month after the vote.

During a visit to the Dominican Republic last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration will continue to impose penalties on Maduro’s regime.

“We will implement our sanctions and, if we find violations of them, we will act. That’s what we did, and that’s what we will continue to do,” he said.

Decrying any new sanctions as another “rude and vulgar” coup attempt, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said Monday in a statement posted to Instagram that his country had pulverized U.S. imperial ambitions into “cosmic dust.”

Allies wavering

It’s all complicated Maduro’s relationships, even with longtime allies.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, one of Maduro’s oldest political friends, has not recognized him as the winner and has said relations between the two nations have “deteriorated because of the political situation in Venezuela.”

Lula’s government also took control of the Argentine embassy — where six of Machado’s closest aides have sheltered for months — after its personnel were expelled from Venezuela.

Tensions increased over the weekend after Maduro’s government revoked Brazil’s permission to oversee the Argentine mission, claiming it was harboring people suspected of terrorist acts and assassination plots against Maduro and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.

Dozens of Maduro’s agents stationed themselves outside the embassy in Caracas on Friday, threatening to go in. As of Sunday afternoon, the armed security presence had dispersed.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, another of Maduro’s leftist allies, has been attempting to broker a solution alongside Brazil. In a statement Monday, Petro’s foreign ministry said it advocated for dialogue in Venezuela and would support a political process there “surrounded by full guarantees.”

And now, as Spain receives González, it’s almost impossible for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — a socialist and close ally of Latin American leftists — not to acknowledge Venezuela’s situation.

“Although the government has an advantage with Edmundo González out, it’s at a roadblock, because economic prospects are dire and will deepen the unrest in the country,” said London-based political analyst Mariano De Alba. “At some point the government will need to negotiate.”