Hurricane center tracks 4 systems with tropical potential

The National Hurricane Center continued Friday to keep busy with four systems that could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, though, all had low chances for formation.

One that has been dropping rain along the U.S. coast is a low pressure system up against a weak frontal boundary in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

“Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching frontal system later today or on Saturday,” forecasters said. “Although tropical cyclone development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so.”

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee estimates rain from the extended reach of the Gulf system that has produced showers all the way over to Florida’s Panhandle has dropped 2-4 inches since Thursday in some isolated areas with more on the way.

The NHC gave the system a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Up in the northwestern Atlantic several hundred miles east of the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast is a gale-force low pressure system with a large area of showers and thunderstorms taking on a nontropical structure.

“The low is forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this eveningand overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical characteristics appears to be decreasing,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave the system a 20% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

In the northwestern Caribbean Sea and headed into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is a tropical wave near the coast of Belize and the YucatanPeninsula of Mexico with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“The wave is forecast to move across Central America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave the system a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

Then in the eastern tropical Atlantic is an elongated trough of low pressure producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave the system a 10% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had a busy start producing five named storms so far, but has not produced any other named systems since Hurricane Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, with the traditional height of storm production running from mid-August into October.

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