Despite a day of relative calm in the skies over Israel and Lebanon, tensions remained high Monday over the prospect that a regional war could erupt after Israel mounted what it called a preemptive strike that took out thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers.

Israeli officials said the assault on Sunday morning, which sent more than 100 warplanes over southern Lebanon, was based on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to fire thousands of missiles at northern Israel as well as drones at a key intelligence center just north of Tel Aviv in retaliation for the killing of its commander in July.

Israel declared a 48-hour state of emergency and shut its main airport for several hours, with numerous airlines canceling flights. Iran-backed Hezbollah responded by firing more than 200 projectiles, according to Israel, although officials said very limited damage was caused. One Israeli soldier was killed by falling debris, while three deaths were reported in Lebanon.

If Hezbollah had successfully executed an attack on targets in central Israel, the tit-for-tat fighting that’s been simmering on the border area for 10 months may have turned into wider warfare.

“Our hope is that the events of last night do not spill out into an escalation that leads to regional war,” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Sunday evening during a visit to Canada.

Israeli officials argued that their strikes at Hezbollah made a broader war less likely. Israel reopened air travel and eased restrictions on public gatherings.

“It was a huge success that we detected the plans and now there is the possibility for both sides not to escalate this very complex situation,” said retired Brigadier General Ilan Biton, a former chief of defense for Israel’s air force. Both Israel and Hezbollah announced that, for the moment, their operations were over — despite ongoing low-level fighting.

Significantly, negotiations in Cairo aimed at establishing a cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militia Hamas commenced as planned on Sunday.

Although Israeli officials said there was progress, Hamas suggested otherwise. Israel has “set new conditions for a cease-fire” and “is still procrastinating,” according to a statement citing Osama Hamdan, a spokesman and leader of Hamas. In a dig at U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, he said it’s “planting false hope by talking about an imminent agreement for electoral purposes.”

The talks continued Monday, with working groups meeting in Cairo, according to White House spokesman John Kirby.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas arrived in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Monday evening and was scheduled to meet Tuesday with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The oil-rich kingdom has been expected to play a role helping to rebuild Gaza after the war, although it’s unclear who will govern the area.

Hezbollah retaliation

Hezbollah said its weekend attack on Israel was the start of retaliation for the killing of its commander Fuad Shukr on July 30 in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The group said it fired more than 320 missiles, followed up by drones, to target 11 army barracks and military sites in northern Israel.

The Mossad intelligence service’s base in Glilot was the main target of the attack, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said Sunday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting Sunday and said he was “determined to do everything to defend our country, to return the residents of the north securely to their homes, and to continue upholding a simple rule: Whoever harms us — we will harm them.”

US support

The U.S. has stepped up its naval and air defense presence in the region as a warning to Iran and its allies not to increase hostilities.

Asked if Israel had informed the U.S. in advance of its plans to hit at Hezbollah, Sullivan, the national security adviser, sidestepped the question. “I can’t speak directly to the conversations that unfolded yesterday, other than to say there was continuous communication, and we have been tracking the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel for some time now,” he said.

But despite fresh U.S. statements Sunday affirming support for Israel’s right to defense, the attack on Hezbollah is a setback for “American diplomacy, which has been laser-focused on de-escalation” and on the search for a cease-fire in Gaza, according to Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center in Washington. “In private, the past 10-plus months have showcased various ebbs and flows in U.S.-Israeli relations, and certainly a significant rise in tensions.”

She said it raises doubts among regional allies about “whether the U.S. still has leverage over Israel.”

Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire along the border since October, when the Lebanese organization entered the fray in support of Hamas in Gaza. Israeli strikes have killed at least 500 people since then, most of them Hezbollah fighters. In Israel, roughly 30 soldiers and 18 civilians have been killed by Hezbollah attacks.

Preventing the skirmishes from escalating even further has been at the heart of international diplomatic efforts to ease tension across the Middle East.

Hours after an Israeli airstrike on July 30 killed Hezbollah’s military chief in Beirut, Iran blamed Israel for killing the head of Hamas’ political office, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Iran has vowed to retaliate but it has also said it would do so on its own timetable. Israel has repeatedly warned it not to do so.

On Sunday, Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and Iran that the latest attack isn’t “the end of the story,” and was “another step on the way to changing the situation in the north, and return our residents safely to their homes.”

Evacuations

The U.S. has been trying to mediate between Lebanon and Israel to reach a compromise over border disputes. Tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese have been evacuated from the border area due to the fighting, and Israel wants Hezbollah to move its fighters away from the border to allow its citizens to return.

Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., says it will continue hostilities with Israel until the country agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza with Hamas, also designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and others.

The war in the Palestinian enclave began on Oct. 7 after Hamas militants, supported by Iran, invaded Israel and killed 1,200 people and abducted others. Israel’s retaliation in Gaza has killed at least 40,000 people, according to Hamas health officials in Gaza.

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(With assistance from Natalia Drozdiak, Omar Tamo, Marissa Newman, Jenny Leonard, Brian Platt, Jon Herskovitz and Akayla Gardner.)

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