France braces for potential political earthquake: a far-right surge. What to know about the election

For decades, there's been a strong political taboo in France against a far-right party coming to power. Now, just weeks before the showcase Summer Olympics begin in Paris, the nationalist-populist National Rally is making its most concerted bid ever to do just that.

In Sunday's second and final round of voting, the anti-immigration, "French-first" party is forecast to become the largest in Parliament — although the latest projections suggest it may fall short of an absolute majority that would allow it to form a government.

Whether or not opponents succeed in banding together to blunt its most ambitious aims, the National Rally will likely be in a position to harry and hamstring centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who assumed his post in 2017 and still has three years remaining in his current term.

"It means that France is entering a crisis," Gerard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States, said after the far-right party cruised to first place in an initial round of voting June 30. Speaking on an Atlantic Council podcast, Araud called the situation an "unmitigated disaster" for Macron.

Galvanized by the National Rally's early triumph, other parties, including Macron's centrists, have spent this week working frantically to prevent it from attaining an absolute majority, an outcome that would force Macron to install its 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister.

Even if the far right fails to meet that threshold, it could potentially cobble together a ruling coalition, or simply use its newfound clout to gum up the agenda of Macron, whose party until now held the largest number of seats.

Here is some background on how France arrived at this chaotic political juncture.

Who is contesting the vote and what is at stake?

The parties are vying for 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower and more powerful house of Parliament. The National Rally hopes to win at least 289 seats, which would allow it to form a government without needing coalition partners.

The three main political blocs in the running are the National Rally; a coalition called the New Popular Front, which includes center-left and hard-left forces, along with environmentalists; and Macron's centrist alliance. They came in first, second and third, respectively, in the June 30 first round of voting.

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