Michael Payne, researcher and outreach coordinator at UC Davis’ School of Veterinary Medicine Western Institute for Food Safety and Security, said there was no one to blame for the lack of containment.

He said in the weeks and months before the disease was identified in cattle, researchers from across the nation scrambled to figure out what was happening to dairy cows in Texas that appeared listless and had diminished milk production.

“It’s not like people weren’t aware or concerned and trying to figure it out,” he said. And then once it was identified, and it didn’t seem to cause too much illness in cows or transfer to humans quickly, while there was urgency, the system fell into a series of “incremental” solutions — negotiated among dozens of federal and state agencies.

He and Topham agree that no one can say for sure what the virus will do — and where it will go — next.

If it becomes endemic in cattle and is renamed “bovine influenza,” vaccines are likely to follow, as well as continuous surveillance and testing of dairy products.

Topham said that the biggest concern among epidemiologists now is how the virus will evolve as it continues to move — largely unabated and undetected — through cattle herds, resident farm animals and people.

There have been three human cases of H5N1 in U.S. dairy workers since March.

One key worry is that the virus may move with a dairy employee onto a small farm and then recombine inside a pig, dog or cat that is harboring another flu virus.

He and Payne agree that officials need to remain alert to signs that the virus is adapting in ways that could hurt humans.

Wastewater is one way to detect the location of the virus.

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