Israel prepares forces as conflict with Hezbollah intensifies

If a fully fledged war breaks out in the north, Israel estimates a baseline scenario of as many as 5,000 missiles a day will be fired from Lebanon, on top of several hundred more by other Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, said the Israeli official, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.

The sheer volume of rockets could test Israel’s much vaunted air defense systems to breaking point, increasing the number of casualties and disrupting daily life. Hezbollah is likely to try and hit infrastructure facilities like power plants and water pipes, as well as sea ports, airports and communication sites, the official said.

The military effort would come on top of on Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, where the IDF is preparing a potential ground invasion of Rafah, the southern city where more than 1 million civilians have taken refuge from the months of bombardments further north. More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in the campaign so far, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

New war

Israel has been preparing for a new war with Hezbollah for over 15 years, setting up a National Emergency Authority to coordinate government ministries, local authorities and other agencies to prepare for a surprise attack. The blueprint has become known as ‘the compass’ — a classified document that lays out Hezbollah’s capabilities and the maximum damage the group could cause.

The plan dictates the amount of emergency stocks Israel will buy to prepare for war and potential evacuations from affected territories. These were topped up by about 2 billion shekels ($530 million) in five different categories after Oct. 7, including energy, medical supplies and raw material for the food industry. Officials have studied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for ideas, noting how Moscow’s forces looked to dismantle energy infrastructure and impose blackouts to assert its dominance.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen recently pledged that no one will be in the dark for an extended length of time in a Hezbollah war scenario. “We have established an unprecedented set of backups which allows us to route electricity in a short time to any affected area,” he said.

Every government ministry has been roped into preparations for war. Israel’s train company will use diesel-run locomotives to replace electric ones. Ramon airport in Israel’s south will be able to partially take over from Ben Gurion International hub, though whether international airlines will keep flying to Israel is another question.

Supermarkets that install generators to enable the use of credit cards during power shortages will be dubbed “iron markets” and published on a specialized government web page. The same goes for “Iron gas stations.”

Many Israelis are not waiting for the authorities to tell them what to do. Before Iran’s attack on Israel earlier this month, grocery chains reported a huge surge in food sales, and delivery service Wolt reported a spike in orders from supermarkets and convenience stores.

“We are also experiencing a renewed wave of demand for emergency products,” said Amit Shabtai, the trade and import manager of the Kravitz office supply and electronic products chain. “It started in October with the outbreak of the war, faded toward the end of December, but there is once again an increase in the sales of products such as portable power and energy stations, folding solar panels, docking stations, flashlights, batteries and transistors,” she told the Globes newspaper this month.