When Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles on Israel in early 1991, the U.S. implored then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir not to respond. Shamir said he had to act. After days of late-night calls, high-level visits and long cabinet meetings, Israel stood down and the US led a 42-nation alliance that defeated Iraq in what became the Gulf War.

Iran’s decision to launch 350 missiles and drones at Israel last weekend was the first time since then that a sovereign nation carried out such an assault on the Jewish state. Another hardline Likud party leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is prime minister and an equally frantic set of calls and visitors is urging him not to react while cabinet meetings focus on the need to do something.

But while offering many parallels, the latest events are different from 1991 in at least one significant way: Israel’s powerful Western allies aren’t offering to do the fighting for it. Rather, they’re suggesting that no one challenge Iran militarily just now. And many in Israel, including in Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, say that will not fly.

Iran has said its mission is over after seeking to avenge an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Israel claimed success after repelling the barrage with virtually no damage or deaths. Yet the urgent question remains whether the two plunge into a deeper direct conflict with repercussions beyond the Middle East, and how much of the answer comes down to Israeli politics — and Netanyahu’s survival instincts.

“We can’t absorb this quietly,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Israel’s Army Radio on Wednesday. “We are at a crossroads regarding our place in the Middle East, as well as that of our children. Our deterrence is in a problematic spot, and a weak response is dangerous.”

U.S. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have told Netanyahu all week to “take the win,” referring to the fact that — with their help and that of neighboring Arab states — Israel stopped 99% of the projectiles aimed at it.

The Israeli government and public are in fact torn about how to proceed. A poll from Hebrew University published on Wednesday showed half believing Israel should not respond and half saying it should, even if it means extending the current round of the conflict.

Then there’s how to do it, and whether to do it alone. Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich, a former head of aerial defense, said there’s no way Israel will do nothing, but “I think it is very important for Israel not to stand alone against Iran.”

Many commentators abroad express frustration that Israel’s allies give it such support, yet Netanyahu seems to blow them off for his own political survival. He needs his hard-right partners like Smotrich to stay in office, the argument goes, and so instead of pursuing what’s best, he listens to them.

Netanyahu is already the longest serving prime minister in the country’s history. But while the 74-year-old is deeply unpopular because of the way his far-right government has pushed populist policies and failed to anticipate the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, few in Israel — even among his critics — think the dilemma over Iran is mostly about him.

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