WASHINGTON — Texas Rep. Kay Granger’s decision to step down early as chair of the House Appropriations Committee opens one of the most powerful jobs in Congress.

But unlike the usual scramble to claim the powerful gavel, the race to fill Granger’s seat may not be much of a race at all, with Oklahoma’s Tom Cole emerging as a clear front-runner and consolidating support from senior appropriators.

Cole, the Transportation-HUD Appropriations Subcommittee chairman, is the only member running for the position thus far, and has the support of nine of the other subcommittee leaders, also known as “cardinals.”

Alabama’s Robert B. Aderholt, the Labor-HHS-Education Subcommittee chairman who has a seniority edge over Cole, is also weighing a bid. He’s positioning himself as a more conservative alternative, as he joined a majority of the conference in opposing the most recent final fiscal 2024 appropriations package.

“The Congressman is being very deliberate in making a decision, because it’s clear we cannot continue under the same appropriations process and expect a different outcome,” Aderholt spokesman Carson Clark said Tuesday in a statement.

However, Cole is considered a heavy favorite, as the membership of the GOP Steering Committee leans more toward the establishment wing of the party that provided the votes needed to get the spending package over the finish line last week.

In fact, members of that Steering Committee voted 21-11 to support the new $1.2 trillion spending measure. And that margin grows wider when factoring in the four votes Speaker Mike Johnson controls on the committee and the two votes that Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., controls.

The Steering Committee has not yet scheduled its meeting to fill the position, though it is expected to take place after Congress returns from its current recess. Granger announced last week that she would be stepping into a “chairwoman emeritus” role as the fiscal 2025 process is likely to stretch well into the new fiscal year and she is retiring after this Congress.

Whichever person wins the contest to lead the committee faces a challenging fiscal 2025 dynamic, with a late start and the looming election making any final appropriations close to the Oct. 1 start of the fiscal year highly improbable.

The spending caps laid out in last year’s debt limit law will also be challenging for appropriators to navigate, with Republicans warily eyeing a 1 percent increase in defense spending allowed under the cap — amounting to a cut after adjusting for inflation.

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