His company also has developed technology — the Freedom Case, they call it — that allows shoppers to open cases themselves using personal information such as their cellphone number or by scanning their face.

More than 40 retailers are testing the Freedom Case in stores, Budano said, including a national chain he declined to name.

To combat theft, Budano said, companies often scrutinize missing merchandise using individual SKUs, the most granular data possible.

"They know all the way down to which flavor of Oil of Olay is most stolen," he said. "The pace at which things have gotten locked up tells you the magnitude of the problem."

But that magnitude — which retail industry groups say has reached "unprecedented" and "epidemic" levels, despite data showing such characterizations are overblown — varies by city.

The Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan research organization, tracked shoplifting trends in 24 cities from 2019 to the middle of 2023 and found that rates were down in more than two-thirds of the cities. New York City and L.A. were the two biggest exceptions, logging increases of 64% and 61%, respectively.

Even in light of the recent surge in L.A., the rate of reported shoplifting incidents in L.A. County in late 2022 was slightly lower than it had been 2014, according to a report from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank that analyzed state Department of Justice statistics. During that eight-year period, only three of the state's 15 most populous counties — all in the San Francisco Bay Area — saw increased rates of shoplifting, a misdemeanor crime defined as stealing goods valued at less than $950.

The report's author, Magnus Lofstrom, said that rates of reported shoplifting dropped in much of the state, including L.A. County, when stores emptied out during the 2020 shutdowns. But the region saw a steady rise in the summer of 2021, he said, and by late 2022, the most recent data at the time of his report, the rate was at least 10% above the pre-pandemic level.

In recent months, several companies, including the 99 Cents Only chain and Target, have cited theft or shrink as a reason that factored into their decisions to shutter locations.

Charis Kubrin, a professor of criminology at University of California-Irvine who studies retail theft, said that although some stores lock up lots of merchandise, others cage almost nothing.

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