Baffert returned to the winner’s circle in a big way during the 2023 Triple Crown season: He won the 2023 Preakness Stakes, the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, with National Treasure.

That horse began his 3-year-old season under Baffert’s care, before being transferred to Yakteen and then back to Baffert’s barn ahead of the Preakness.

“It’s good to be back,” Baffert said in an emotional interview on NBC after that win, which was his first Triple Crown win since the 2020 Derby (Authentic) and his record eighth Preakness Stakes win as a trainer.

“I love Pimlico (Race Course). I love Baltimore. I love these horses,” Baffert said. “That’s why we get through these tough times together.”

A few hours before National Treasure’s win, another Baffert-trained horse, Havnameltdown, suffered a catastrophic injury during an undercard race at Pimlico. This was part of a particularly deadly and prominent horse racing period: Last year, at least one horse died following racing incidents at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, at Pimlico Race Course on Preakness Stakes Day and at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes Day.

Ahead of this year’s Kentucky Derby, Baffert horses have “claimed” 303 of 2,918 total qualifying points (10.4%) offered from 36 American Road to the Derby prep races. Baffert trainees occupied 13 of the 179 total finishing positions (7.3%) with qualifying points attached.

In addition to Muth, Baffert would also have been in position this year to have two other potential Kentucky Derby runners.

Imagination won the San Felipe Stakes and finished second (by a neck) in the Santa Anita Derby. He would have earned 100 Derby qualifying points, which would have put Imagination in a tie for sixth on the Derby qualifying leaderboard.

Assuming that both Muth and Imagination were in the field, Wine Me Up would have been one of the first also-eligible horses for the race. Wine Me Up would have had 42 qualifying points after finishing among the top four runners in four different Derby prep races.

And this is to say nothing of Nysos, a Baffert trainee who may be the best 3-year-old in this year’s class. Nysos has won all three of his races (including two graded stakes) by a combined 26 3/4 lengths. The horse was pulled out of training in March for one month due to a “minor” setback, and Baffert recently said Nysos won’t be able to run in the Preakness Stakes on May 18.

Over the course of his three-year Kentucky Derby suspension, horses with Baffert as the trainer of record have “accumulated” 543 out of a possible 8,219 qualifying points (6.6%) toward Derby qualification from 110 total races in the American qualifying pathway.

Baffert-trained horses have occupied 46 of the 511 total finishing positions (9%) that offered qualifying points from those races.

With Baffert still able to run horses at non-CDI racetracks, and therefore run horses in Kentucky Derby prep races, some embarrassing moments have occurred with relation to the Derby prep calendar.

— In the 2022 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita, Baffert-trained horses finished first, second, third and fourth. Only one of the 20 Derby qualifying points on offer was awarded.

— In the 2023 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, all four horses in the race were trained by Baffert. Qualifying points toward the Derby are normally awarded to the top five finishers in that race, so none of the potential 40 Derby points were actually given out.

— During this year’s Derby prep season, a Baffert-trained horse won five of the 36 races (13.9%) that were part of the American Road to the Kentucky Derby. This includes Muth’s romp in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which was by far the most prominent Derby prep win for Baffert during his suspension from the race.

Baffert also had the 1-2 finishers with Imagination and Wine Me Up in last month’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, another race that normally gives out Derby points to the top five finishers. Only four horses ran in the race, and only 25 of a possible 100 qualifying points were actually awarded.

What does the 2024 Kentucky Derby field look like without Baffert horses?

The last time the Kentucky Derby didn’t have a Bob Baffert connection was in 2017, when the famed trainer didn’t have a horse in the field.

Baffert’s inseparable legacy with the Derby — he’s tied with Ben Jones for the most wins by a trainer with six — makes it an odd dynamic to have such a celebrated and historic edition of the race without Baffert involved.

Will the quality of the race suffer?

Even without Muth, Imagination, Wine Me Up or Nysos in the field, several quality horses and compelling storylines will be on offer in this year’s Derby.

Qualifying points leader Sierra Leone (155) won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland with a dominant run from the back of the field. He’s aiming to become the first Blue Grass winner to double up with the Derby since 1991 (Strike the Gold).

The Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness eviscerated the Florida Derby field last month, winning that prep race by more than 13 lengths.

Forever Young (JPN) is a perfect 5 for 5 in his racing career and is looking to become the first horse with ties to Japan to win the Derby, as well as the first former UAE Derby runner to finish in the money in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Larry Demeritte, a native of The Bahamas, is set to saddle West Saratoga: Demeritte will be the first Black trainer with a horse in the field since 1989.

“There are plenty of fast horses in there,” said Chad Brown, Sierra Leone’s trainer, following his big win last month at Keeneland.

“To me, Fierceness and Sierra Leone kind of stand out among what I’ve seen in the U.S. horses,” added Larry Collmus, a longtime horse racing announcer who calls the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup for NBC Sports.

“Forever Young is the big question mark, the Japanese horse. ... Catching Freedom (a Brad Cox trainee who won the Louisiana Derby) is so consistent. He’s a horse that makes that late run every time.”

When post time arrives at Churchill Downs on the evening of May 4, and 20 horses load into the starting gate, Baffert’s lack of presence will fade away, at least for the two minutes it takes for the race to be run.

But if recent history is any indication, it won’t be long until thoughts shift toward the 2025 Derby, and Baffert’s long-awaited return.

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