Fundraising will be key to tossup congressional races in California's Central Valley. Who has the edge so far?

Still, Duarte ended March with more than $1.81 million on hand. Gray had just over $1.15 million.

“This is one of the most important races in America. If we’re going to get rid of this do-nothing Congress, it starts here in our Valley,” Gray said in a statement sent to The Bee. “That’s why people have been generous.”

“I want to thank all of the hardworking families who are supporting our campaign to bring down the cost of groceries, gas and housing,” Duarte said in a statement sent to The Bee.

How competitive are these Central Valley congressional races?

This rural stretch of San Joaquin Valley, where a little bit of money can go a longer way than in other parts of California, will gather lots of national attention because of its competitive House races. The elections here could help determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives in 2025. Republicans currently have a slim majority.

Races in California’s 13th and 22nd — areas represented by Republicans that President Joe Biden would have won in 2020 had the current district maps been in place — are toss-ups, election analysts say.

Both the 13th and 22nd have more Democrats than Republicans (42% in each are registered Democrats, 29% are Republicans in the 13th and 27% in the 22nd, and 21% to 22% in each are no-party-preference). They are both Latino-majority voting districts.

The 13th district, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, would have elected Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points. The 22nd, which includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties, would have picked Biden by 13 percentage points.

These areas generally have low turnout compared to the rest of the state, leading to older, conservative, white voters having a larger say.

Turnout statewide tends to be at its highest during the November elections of presidential years, noted Paul Mitchell, founder and vice president of election-data tracker Political Data, Inc., but history indicates turnout here will still be lower than in other California districts.

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