Florida's lost its battleground sheen. Biden is courting its Hispanic voters anyway

It is exceedingly expensive to campaign in and advertise in Florida, they note, and the Hispanic population is more politically fragmented, and often more conservative, than in most other states. Some experts have described a broad political realignment toward the GOP among Florida Hispanic voters — one that has been accelerated by what some Democrats say is a lack of serious effort and investment by their party and its candidates.

“(Hispanic voters) have changed here, but I think part of the reason they’ve changed is because the Republicans have the Hispanic electorate to themselves,” said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who worked on former President Barack Obama’s successful 2012 campaign.

Florida’s recent political history, including DeSantis’ outsized win in 2022 over Democrat Charlie Crist and the GOP’s expanding voter-registration advantage — about 850,000 people — has also made other states more appealing targets, said John Morgan, an attorney and longtime Democratic donor.

“I think North Carolina has a better chance of Biden winning than Florida,” Morgan said. “That’s just where we are in today’s politics. But Florida is still purple. People may not believe it because of Desantis’ rout of Charlie Crist, but I believe that was more a moment in time.”

In a telling sign of where the Biden campaign’s priorities lie, his campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez released a memo this week naming Georgia and North Carolina as the two most critical states in the southern United States. Florida — once a coveted target for presidential candidates from both parties — wasn’t mentioned once.

Still, Democrats say they have reasons to stay hopeful.

Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, told reporters last week that she had gotten “complete confirmation” from the Biden campaign and national Democratic groups that they’ll put money into trying to win Florida.

The Biden campaign rolled out a $30 million ad buy earlier this month targeting battleground states, as well as Black and Latino voters. Some of that money will be spent in Florida.

One digital ad hitting former President Donald Trump over his efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act — the landmark healthcare law signed by Obama — began running in Florida over the weekend, with a large part of the ad buy targeting Miami-Dade County, according to a Biden campaign spokesperson.

Florida Democrats believe one of the most influential factors in the November election will be a state ballot measure that would safeguard abortion access in Florida. The Florida Supreme Court is expected to decide on Thursday whether the language of that measure complies with state law.

If the court allows the measure to appear on the November ballot, Democrats say that it could juice voter turnout and ultimately help their candidates by making abortion rights a central theme of the election.

“It’s an important ballot initiative for Floridians. Period,” Cuba said. “I think where Florida has seen progress on issues, whether it’s this decision on abortion or raising the minimum wage or restoring rights, it’s been through the ballot box. I’m optimistic that it’ll also show what’s really at stake in this election.”

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