The preliminary 2020 sale agreement didn’t go through after Donald Trump was voted out of office and Biden showed less interest in pursuing his predecessor’s deal. Trump last month raised concerns that a ban against TikTok could boost its rival Meta Platforms Inc., which previously suspended Trump from its platforms. Americans go to the polls again this November. ByteDance expects it can get a restraining order on the legislation and then wage a legal battle that could last more than a year, according to one person familiar with the matter.

“It’s also a U.S. election year, so no matter what you do, they can only wait until after the election to see what the situation is like,” said Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies.

Beijing is a big hurdle to any sale of TikTok. A TikTok divestiture would require approval from Chinese regulators, who are unlikely to accommodate Washington’s plans. The government there has made it clear it wants neither TikTok’s prized algorithms nor its valuable data to fall into American hands, a person familiar with TikTok’s thinking said, asking to remain anonymous discussing company deliberations.

TikTok’s technology — most apparent in the platform’s addictive scroll of recommended videos that keep users hooked and wanting more — was an issue even back in 2020.

Under Trump, TikTok struck a complicated deal to spin out and sell a slice of TikTok to Oracle Corp. at a $60 billion valuation, upon which the U.S. software firm would become its sole U.S. data management partner. But ByteDance would retain control of the actual technology.

That year, ByteDance’s revenue more than doubled to about $35 billion, a chunk of which stemmed from its U.S. arm. That’s about when TikTok challenged the Trump ban in court, winning a temporary reprieve from a judge who ruled the White House may have overstepped.

The issue began to fade from the public consciousness. The idea of banning TikTok only resurfaced around 2023, when Biden began confronting China in a number of areas.

Read More: China Braces for Worst as It Becomes Punching Bag in U.S. Election

The crux of the situation is Tiktok’s future in the U.S. Handing the service over to a local competitor means ByteDance gets shut out. Abandoning ship raises the prospect of a return at some stage, perhaps during a friendlier administration.

“A ban would be the better option of the two. If you shutter the U.S. business, there’s always a chance you could win back the market, despite how difficult that is,” said Ke Yan, a Singapore-based analyst with DZT Research. “The divestment is much more complicated since it involves technology transfers.”

The solution now likely lies with the courts — though that too comes with its own risks.

A protracted legal fight could surface information both sides may prefer remain private. It threatens to tie up and distract TikTok, giving its rivals an opening to poach users. Corporate sponsors may drop off if exchanges turn nasty. And influencers, ever on the hunt for the next shiny object, may gravitate toward less turbulent platforms.

It remains unclear how a ban might work. Simply getting Apple Inc. and Google to remove the app from stores may not be enough, since users who’ve downloaded the software can stay engaged. The bill makes it clear that hosting the service will be illegal — suggesting a direct impact on usage.

“At the end of the day, ByteDance may be forced to choose to leave the U.S. market,” said Wei Zongyou, a professor on American security and foreign policy at Fudan University.

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