"Nobody knows anything."

William Goldman's refrain in "Adventures in the Screen Trade," his classic dissection of the movie business, has always held true for Broadway, but never more so than in a season in which long shots overshadowed safe bets.

The Tony nominations, announced in New York on Tuesday, paint a portrait of another year of transition on Broadway. Artistic frustration with the status quo continues to bump up against unyielding economic realities. Yet the old producing playbooks no longer reap dependable harvests.

Not even touted London imports, such as the Eddie Redmayne-led revival of "Cabaret," or "Patriots," Peter Morgan's historical drama about the rise of Vladimir Putin, can count on Americans rolling out the red carpet. Reviews for both productions were mixed to the point that the Tony nominations for these shows (nine for "Cabaret," one for "Patriots") carry all the euphoria of a consolation prize.

On paper, "Stereophonic," a three-hour, 20-minute drama by an experimental off-Broadway playwright in a production lacking marquee names, doesn't scream Broadway hit. Yet David Adjmi's play is the most celebrated new work of the season, nominated for 13 Tonys and considered the heavy favorite for best play.

The shoo-in for best musical revival, "Merrily We Roll Along," offers another tale of unlikely triumph. Stephen Sondheim and George Furth's 1981 musical was a notorious flop when it premiered on Broadway. The experience was such a blow that Sondheim and director Hal Prince decided to take an extended break from a storied collaboration that had brought forth such landmark works as "Company," "Follies," "A Little Night Music," "Pacific Overtures" and "Sweeney Todd."

The few times I've seen "Merrily," including Michael Arden's glossy 2016 production at the Wallis Annenberg Center for the Performing Arts in Beverly Hills, I've come away with a sense of futility. The backwards chronology of the book, tracing the friendship of three artists from cynical middle age to the idealistic innocence of young adulthood, is part of the musical's trickiness. But the bigger hurdle is the sour taste the characters can leave.

That queasy, curdling feeling has finally been conquered. With the perfect trio of actors in New York, director Maria Friedman found the heart and soul of "Merrily" in a revival that proves that Sondheim and Furth knew what they were doing all along. Jonathan Groff, Daniel Radcliffe and Lindsay Mendez, exuding the chemistry of best chums, were justly nominated for their work along with Friedman, who deserves a medal for pulling off what many, me included, feared might be impossible. Groff's portrayal of Franklin, the emotional key to this revival's success, is for me the standout performance of the year.

There has been no clear best musical front-runner, but "Hell's Kitchen" has moved to the front of the pack with 13 nominations, the most of any musical. I fell under the spell of the show when I saw it at the Public Theatre last fall. The energy of the production rivals "Hamilton," which also began at the Public before moving to Broadway. It's the one show I tell friends wanting an exuberant night on town to see.

The fire in "Hell's Kitchen" emanates from the way Alicia Keys and her team reimagined her musical catalog to infuse an autobiographically inspired New York tale with the freedom of jazz. In one of the performances of the year (made even more mind-blowing when you realize it's her Broadway debut), Maleah Joi Moon plays Ali, Keys' surrogate, in an ensemble that's ablaze with incredible voices and astonishing musical know-how. (Shoshana Bean, Kecia Lewis and Brandon Victor Dixon, all rapturously good, also received well-deserved nominations.)

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